I live in California. I have been, for days now, somewhat uneasy as I send my two girls off to school in the morning. It may sound goofy, but this whole Swine Flu thing has me worried. I majored in microbiology in college and have read about every scientific book I could get my hands on about the flu virus.
Not to be a panic monger, but the cluster of illnesses in a school in New York have me concerned because from an epidemiological standpoint, pandemic flu looks different than seasonal flu. And when one person manages to infect a large number of people within a community- that looks more like epi/pandemic style behavior than endemic flu. Seasonal flu is pervasive, remains within the population all the time and forms a bell curve(with the x-axis being time) usually peaking within the winter months, maybe at the end of January-beginning of February or so. And yes, it kills alot of people, but usually people with weakened immune systems or who are elderly and infirm. This atypical strain of H1N1 turns the body's own defenses against itself causing terrible pneumonia. If one is so unlucky as to die from it, death occurs from the lungs filling with fluid until the infected person can no longer breathe and dies.
The odd thing is that it tends to go for healthier individuals. Few elderly people are contracting this or suffering complications from it. Our children and young people will be the ones most impacted by this virus if it becomes more virulent or more deadly.
It's interesting- some people see that this virus is an H1N1 strain and they assume, wrongly, that it is a variant of the seasonal flu. H1N1 is a subtype of Influenza- but it does not share the same lineage as seasonal flu and thus the vaccine compenents are not effective against it. This particular strain carries genetic material from four viruses: N American swine flu, avian flu, human flu and a swine flu typically found in Asia. This strain- called by the CDC "novel H1N1 influenza" is unstable, making it more likely to trade genetic material with other viruses.
So, we've noticed public health officials in the Bay Area have been waffling on recommending school closures where there is a suspected case of "novel H1N1". They are saying that this flu isn't causing as serious symptoms as they thought it might. The problem is, even if it isn't now and I might argue with that when you look at the curves from the CDC on hospitalizations for the most recent weeks for 5-24 year olds- (it's higher than ever!) if we allow this virus to run rampant in the population, it may well bump into a virus with much more deadly properties, swap material and then decimate us. Okay. Maybe I am being a little sensationalist.
The CDC keeps a FluTracker- showing how many samples they are testing and how many of those samples are positive for what types of flu. We are showing a very unusual spike in flu activity- even the regular seasonal flu. This flu could continue through the summer and come back with a vengeance in the winter. Granted what looks like a spike in activity may relate to increased testing of samples and the close watch that public health agencies are keeping on this virus.
There is a huge correlation with the end of the school year and the falling off of flu cases. Kids have lots and lots of social contact and do not always practice the best hand/cough/sneeze hygeine. Parents get sick from their children all the time and childdren are the most likely members of a household to become infected through person-to-person contact within the home.
Why are we going to wait until something like this reaches drastic and unstoppable proportions before doing something about it? Why are we taking the chance of allowing this to recombine and mutate within our population?
I am watching the reports coming out of our county and surrounding areas very closely and I may just decide to keep the kids at home depending on where things go. In the meantime, what can we do? Apparently, taking vitamin D may offer some protection. I have medicines, food and water stockpiled per the CDC's checklists. They are no bones about what a pandemic could mean to families and individuals- interrupted power and water supplies, no work, school closures, stores out of supplies...
I know, I know... the sky is falling. Not. Just do me a favor, if you read this, check out the CDC's site-http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/fluactivity.htm and just consider what you might need to do if this gets worse. Just think about it.
Yep, we've been thinking about this too. it's pretty scary when you realize how quickly some of these viruses can mutate.
I've been thinking about you and Vi... please let me know if there's anything I can do (aside from prayers & virtual hugs!)
Posted by: Nancy | Tuesday, May 19, 2009 at 05:14 PM